ABC Company Budget Scenario Analysis
12/1/2006
Budget Drivers Probability of shipping on time Number of building permits released within last 6 months Regional economic growth Competitive strength (products, pricing, promotion, placement) Probability of key supplier performance
Scenario 1 (Best case) 98% 25,000 3.50% 7 99%
Scenario 2 (Average case) 95% 30,000 3.20% 8 95%
Scenario 3 (Worst case) 90% 35,000 2.00% 9 90%
Revenue Impact Probability of shipping on time Number of building permits released within last 6 months Regional economic growth Competitive strength (products, pricing, promotion, placement) Probability of key supplier performance Budgeted Annual Revenue Using Base Case Scenario Budget Scenarios Scenario 1: Best case Scenario 2: Average case Scenario 3: Worst case
Scenario 1 (Best case) 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% $32,000,000 Results $36,160,000 $32,000,000 $24,320,000
Scenario 2 (Average case) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scenario 3 (Worst case) -5.0% -5.0% -4.0% -5.0% -5.0%
Base Case Variance $4,160,000 — ($7,680,000)
Variance Percentage 11.50% — -31.58%
Scenario Comparison - Annual Revenue
$40,000,000
$35,000,000
$30,000,000
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0
Scenario 1: Best case Scenario 2: Average case Scenario 3: Worst case